Growth and Sustainability in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia by OECD Publishing

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2. 2. Decomposition of growth of GDP per worker, 1951-2008 Year-on-year growth (%) 2008 2005 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 Capital stock Human capital TFP GDP 1951 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Source: Authors’ calculations. The increase in the rates of output growth from the first regime (1951-67) to the second (1968-80) is due exclusively to higher TFP growth. The rates of growth of physical and human capital do not change much across regimes.

90. Cardoso, E. (1981), “The Great Depression and Commodity Exporting LDC’s: The Case of Brazil”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 89. Cardoso, E. (1998), “Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect”, IMF Working Papers, No. C. Cardoso, E. and M. Holland (2010), “South America for the Chinese? A Trade Based Analysis”, OECD Development Centre Working Papers, No. 289, OECD Development Centre, Paris. Calderón, C. and P. C. de Mello, L. (2009), “Brazil’s Growth Performance: Achievements and Prospects”, UNU-WIDER Research Paper, No.

The central bank would be forced to increase the interest rate in order to control the inflationary effect of the currency depreciation. In turn, this measure would contribute to a new rise in public indebtedness. To maintain confidence in the solvency of the public sector, the government would have to increase the primary budget surplus. Both monetary and fiscal policy reactions would aggravate the impact of the external shock on activity. Nevertheless, the devaluation of the real in 2008-09 did not lead to an increase in public indebtedness during the crisis.

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